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Before It Was News

The Night Oslo Leaked, and the Night It Didn't

Two Nobel Peace Prize nights, two identical overnight spikes on Polymarket: one led investigators to a probable hack, the other pointed at nothing.

Nadia and Miles · 23 min · 13 Oct 2026

FactUnion VerifiedEvery fact on the episode's fact sheet was checked against its sources. Wrong facts were corrected. What this meansFacts checked 13 Oct 2026

Chapters (10)

About this episode

In October 2025, hours before the Nobel Peace Prize announcement, María Corina Machado's Polymarket price climbed from about four percent to over seventy while Oslo slept. The Norwegian Nobel Institute opened an inquiry and in January 2026 concluded that the result had most likely been stolen through digital espionage. Its director said it was not possible to determine who was behind it. Four days ago a chart with the same overnight shape lifted Yulia Navalnaya past fifty percent. The prize went to Navi Pillay, a name neither Polymarket nor Kalshi had listed.

Nadia and Miles rebuild both nights from the timestamps, test the explanations against each other (crowd wisdom, an insider, a theft, a few large accounts, plain noise) and set out what evidence would actually settle it. No account named in this episode has been identified or charged with anything. Nothing here is trading advice.

Hosted by Nadia and Miles, performed by synthetic voices. Supported by STELQ.

Facts and sources

Every fact used in this episode, with the sources it was checked against. Download as data

211 of 211 recorded lines matched the checked script.

  1. The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize to María Corina Machado on October 10, 2025.

  2. Before the overnight surge, Machado’s Polymarket price was about 3.75%, and she had not been named as a frontrunner by analysts, international media or shortlists such as the Peace Research Institute Oslo’s.

  3. Decrypt reported that the move on Machado began at roughly 12:45 a.m. Oslo time, with her price passing 43% shortly before 1:00 a.m. and reaching 73% by 2:00 a.m. Oslo time.

    Reworded to match its sources. Neither Decrypt nor the check gives the UTC time, so that detail is dropped; the Oslo times and percentages are confirmed.

  4. The Guardian reported that Machado’s Polymarket odds rose from about 3.75% to over 70% in less than two hours.

  5. Protos reported that the account ‘6741’, which was created specifically for the Machado market, began betting on Machado at 10:42 p.m. UTC on October 9, 2025, and that the account ‘Dirtycup’ placed bets on Machado from 3:41 a.m. UTC on October 10.

    Reworded to match its sources. The Protos page describes only 6741 as an account created for this market; it does not call Dirtycup a new account with no prior trading history.

Show all 26 factsShow fewer facts

  1. The Asia Business Daily reported that DirtyCup put about $70,000 behind Machado and made about $30,000, and that three main accounts together earned about $90,000.

  2. Bloomberg reported on October 10, 2025 that the unusual Polymarket activity on the Peace Prize winner prompted a probe into possible leaks.

  3. On October 13, 2025, CBS News reported the Nobel Committee’s secretary saying the possible leak was “highly likely” espionage.

  4. On January 30, 2026, Reuters reported the Nobel Committee’s conclusion that the Peace Prize winner was likely revealed early by digital spying, and that officials could not determine how the breach happened or who was responsible, saying criminal or state actors could be involved and that it was unknown whether the motive was profit or damaging the prize’s credibility.

    Reworded to match its sources. The evidence does not say officials concluded they were likely prey to a criminal actor seeking profit. It says criminal or state actors could be involved and the motive, profit or harming the prize's credibility, is unknown.

  5. Bloomberg reported on January 30, 2026 that the institute’s probe found hacking had likely leaked the Peace Prize winner’s name.

  6. TV2 reported that the investigation involved the Norwegian National Security Authority (NSM) and ran the headline quoting Director Kristian Berg Harpviken: “Pilene peker mot infiltrasjon” (the arrows point toward infiltration).

    Reworded to match its sources. The evidence does not confirm that Harpviken declined to say whether PST was involved, so that detail is dropped.

  7. VG’s January 30, 2026 headline quoted Harpviken as saying “Ikke dumt å tenke statlig aktør” (not unreasonable to think of a state actor).

  8. NRK reported that the Nobel Committee did not rule out a state actor behind the possible leak, and officials noted that sophisticated actors can disguise themselves as private ones.

  9. Adressa reported Harpviken saying it was not possible to determine who was behind the Peace Prize leak.

  10. Nettavisen reported that the investigation identified weaknesses in the institute’s digital infrastructure and documentation handling, and that Harpviken said measures had been taken to close the security gaps and that digital systems and routines are being continuously updated.

  11. On October 8, 2026, the day before the announcement, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms were the favourite for the Peace Prize on both Polymarket (17%) and Kalshi (16 cents).

  12. Bitcoin.com News reported that Yulia Navalnaya’s Polymarket price began surging around 23:30 UTC on October 8, 2026, reached 54 cents within thirty minutes, and peaked at 70.6 cents at 00:02 UTC on October 9.

  13. Prediction Authority reported that Navalnaya’s Polymarket price surged overnight from 5% to a peak of 65.5% before she lost.

  14. The Clarity reported that the Navalnaya surge revived questions about Nobel leaks.

  15. Navi Pillay won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize on October 9, 2026, without being a named candidate on either Polymarket or Kalshi.

  16. Pillay’s win was settled through Polymarket’s catch-all contract, ‘Will any other person or organization win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?’, which was created in October 2025 and relabeled with her name after the announcement.

    Reworded to match its sources. Source corrected: the page first cited does not state this; the sources listed do.

  17. About $38,800 traded on the catch-all contract, roughly 0.12% of the market’s $32.3 million total volume.

  18. Kalshi’s 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market did not offer a catch-all option.

  19. As of October 9, 2026 reporting, no leak had been confirmed for the 2026 announcement and there was no evidence of insider trading.

  20. In October 2026, Kalshi opened a review of three bets totalling about $173, placed when Katie Zacharia traded at about 1% odds to be named White House press secretary: one $19 bet placed around 10:42 p.m. ET on October 8, about 15 hours before the October 9 announcement, and two bets of about $74 and $80 placed around 1:41 p.m. ET on October 9, less than 20 minutes before reports surfaced.

    Reworded to match its sources. The evidence gives the total of the three bets as about $173 and never mentions $247, so the upper end of the range is dropped.

  21. Kalshi confirmed the Zacharia review but has not publicly identified the traders or said whether the matter was referred to the CFTC.

Removed during checking (1)

  • The account '6741' reportedly earned about $53,500 on the Machado contract.

    Why it was removed: The iGaming page does not mention 6741 or $53,500, and the check mixes in Manny Machado's baseball contract but says 6741 made more than $50,000 on the Nobel bets.

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